Analysis the stock market opportunities greater than the bond market is likely to be the 3400 highes lara fabian

Analysis: the stock market bond market opportunity is greater than the 3400 point is this year may be the ultimate high – Sohu stock funds this year, continued easing, and the shortage of assets " " the phenomenon does not see any improvement, all asset yields continue down. Poor growth of narrow money and broad money M1 M2 continues to expand, the July monetary scissors expanded to 15.2%, has exceeded the January 2010 record high of 13%. M2 mainly includes business deposits, demand deposits, savings deposits, and M1 based enterprises demand deposits, the price scissors continued to expand the mean growth rate of corporate demand deposits was significantly higher than that of deposits and savings deposits growth. M1 growth from 2.9% in March last year rose to last month’s 25.4%, a record high since June 2010. Over the same period the broad money M2 growth is narrow range, this year has continued to decline, down from 14% in January to $10.2% in July. Monetary data contrast reflects several phenomena: one is the residents deposit growth slowed down, as of the end of 7, deposits of residents of 57 trillion and 900 billion, an increase of 6.1% over the year, while the enterprise deposits 46 trillion and 200 billion, an increase of 7.5% over the year, fiscal deposits growth is the lead, growth of 41.4% compared with the beginning, far higher than the growth rate of enterprises and residents deposits, reflecting the rapid increase the land auction income and government money " " over the same period last year, fiscal deposits growth rate of only 28.3%; two is the enterprise demand deposits, corporate demand deposits grew by 12.8% over the year, and time deposits increased by only 4.7%, the enterprise holding money will rise significantly, on the one hand because of declining interest rates low opportunity cost. On the other hand, some enterprises to raise funds by issuing bonds, the current deposit interest rates higher for the repayment of bank loans; three is the second half of last year. The prices of which deposits on the residents, a large number of buyers money flows to the real estate enterprises, for housing prices to buy land, the final part of the funds flow to the government, for the government to reflect the rapid rise in fiscal deposits. The whole year reflects the amount of loose monetary environment, the structure of tightening trend, the central bank continued to control the short end of the interest rate, inhibition of asset bubbles, but the monetary amount is loose, after repeatedly cut RRR, after the first quarter of this year, loans increased rapidly, the derived currency has been difficult to return, reflects the high M1. On the other hand, due to weakness in the two quarter and credit data in July, M2 did not reflect the rapid growth of 10%, the growth rate is low in recent years, but the real economy is still not able to feel the monetary tightening, the fundamental reason is that demand is weakening, credit funds which also lead to pile up in excess of requirement, the level of interest rates steadily downward. In the course of the interest rate down, the optimal investment strategy is to increase leverage investment bonds, and the central bank in order to prevent excessive leverage is difficult to control the risk, firmly hold the bottom line of the 7 day reverse repo rate of 2.25%. When the long end of the interest rate down to a certain extent, with the added leverage term arbitrage space narrowing, investors will naturally take down the lever, which is a self regulating market behavior, the central bank to anchor " " role. In capital;相关的主题文章: