Future soybean oil market prices still have room to rise-oboni

The future oil market prices are still rising space Sina fund exposure table: the letter Phi lag of false propaganda, long-term performance is lower than similar products, to buy the fund by the pit how to do? Click on [I want to complain], Sina help you expose them! In late August the domestic oil outside the oil drag, plus oil soybean oil stocks at a high level, but also the needs of the poor, the domestic oil market prices showed a downward trend. But China grain Network Analyst Li Fangyu that oil market prices fell just short of the market, first, although the soybean yield is a foregone conclusion, but because the United States Chen beans export good, limit the disk soybean prices fell by second, 9-10 months; domestic soybean imports decreased, the domestic oil supply pressure is reduced; the arrival of domestic oil demand will increase, the third season, the domestic soybean oil stocks will be digested. Therefore, the future domestic soybean oil market prices will have room to rise. U.S. soybean prices difficult to have a big action, the domestic oil prices of recent weak beauty disc soybean as the market expected the U.S. soybean production will reach 4 billion 93 million bushels of record highs, expected soybean yield of 49.3 bushels per acre, making the United States plate prices quickly fell to 950 cents a. But because the United States Chen bean exports is good, thereby limiting the U.S. soybean prices fell. The author thinks that although the September 12th USDA report either increase the probability of a larger, or will be a drag on the U.S. soybean prices fell, but the market expects South American soybean production, supply season ahead to the United States, or will lead the United States Chen beans carryout tension, either will not impact on the competition by South American soybean exports, the market will hype either good export. Even if the report was bad, it is difficult to 930 cents below the line, which will make the U.S. soybean prices will remain volatile in 930-1000 cents, then to the domestic soybean oil futures guide plate even weaker, domestic oil market prices "footsteps" not because of soybean yield and stop. Reduce the supply of domestic oil market demand peatlands, the price rise is bound to enter the rhythm that annual 9-10 month is the traditional domestic soybean imports in the off-season, coupled with the current price of soybean meal is weak, oil refinery in coastal area of China crush margins were dropped to negative, and the U.S. soybean prices in high yield is expected to remain high, making short-term traders less desire to buy a boat. In addition, due to concerns about the state reserve auction to improve overall supply of domestic soybean oil, China buy 9-10 months of imports of soybeans total is small, the network is expected to Chinese September amount of soybeans to Hong Kong in October 6 million tons, or around 5 million 800 thousand tons, due to the reduction of soybean raw material, making the oil supply pressure slow down in the country. Plus September the weather began to turn cold, palm oil will lead to more easily in such low temperature solidification, packing in the oil mixed ratio will gradually decrease, oil entering the peak season of consumption, and the domestic soybean Brown spreads continued to narrow, it is reported that the domestic port of palm oil 24 degrees in about 6200 yuan per ton (the national average), and domestic soybean oil is about 6300 yuan per ton (the national average), the price at around 100 yuan, the price difference makes the low demand will gradually turn to purchasing soybean oil, soybean oil demand theory

未来豆油市场价格仍有上涨空间 新浪基金曝光台:信披滞后虚假宣传,业绩长期低于同类产品,买基金被坑怎么办?点击【我要投诉】,新浪帮你曝光他们!   8月下旬国内油脂由于外盘油脂的拖累,再加上油厂豆油库存处于高位,而且需求不佳,使得国内豆油市场价格呈下跌态势。但中国粮油信息网分析师李方玉认为豆油市场价格下跌行情只是短暂的,第一、虽然美豆丰产已成定局,但由于美陈豆的出口较好,限制美盘大豆期价的下跌幅度;第二、国内9-10月份进口大豆量减少,使得国内豆油供给压力减弱;第三、旺季的到来国内豆油需求量将会增加,国内豆油库存必然大量被消化。因此未来国内豆油市场价格还会有上涨空间。   美盘大豆期价难有大动作,对国内豆油行情指导性较弱   近期美盘大豆由于市场预计美国大豆产量将达40.93亿蒲式耳的纪录高位,预计大豆单产为每英亩49.3蒲式耳,使得美盘期价快速下跌至950美分一线。但由于美陈豆出口较好,进而限制美豆期价的下跌。笔者认为虽然9月12日USDA报告美豆增产的概率较大,或将拖累美豆期价下跌,但市场预计南美大豆减产,供应季节提前转向美国,或将导致美国陈豆结转库存紧张,美豆不会再受到南美大豆出口的竞争性冲击,市场将会炒作美豆良好的出口,即使报告出现明显利空,也很难跌破930美分一线,这将使得美豆期价或将维持在930-1000美分之间震荡,进而对国内豆油连盘期货指导性较弱,国内豆油市场价格上涨的“脚步”不会因为美豆丰产的原因而止步。   供应减少需求放量,国内豆油市场价格势必进入上涨的节奏   据悉每年9-10月是国内传统的进口大豆淡季,再加上当前豆粕价格表现疲弱,国内沿海地区油厂压榨利润均降至负值,且美豆价格在丰产预期时依然居高不下,使得短期贸易商买船意愿更低。另外,由于担忧国储拍卖大豆提高国内整体供应量,中国油厂买入9-10月进口大豆总量偏小,本网预计中国9月大豆到港量在600万吨左右,而10月或将在580万吨左右,由于大豆原料的减少,使得国内豆油供应压力减缓。再加上9月天气开始逐渐转凉,气温偏低将导致棕榈油更易凝固,这样在包装油中的掺比率将逐渐降低,豆油进入消费旺季,并且国内豆棕差价持续缩小,据悉国内港口24度棕榈油约在6200元 吨(国内平均值),而国内毛豆油约在6300元 吨(国内平均值),使得差价在100元左右,低位的差价使得需求方逐渐将采购目光转向豆油,豆油需求将逐步转好。另外,中秋节、国庆节的来临,也将迎来“双节”备货高峰,利好油脂行情。据统计近期国内豆油成交放量,其中8月30日-9月2日成交量约在4.5万吨以上。近期可能只是中秋节的备货,9月中下旬还有一波十一节日的备货高潮,对国内消化豆油库存起到至关重要的作用,进而支撑国内豆油市场价格上行。   综上所述:由于国内豆油供应的减少、需求的放量,未来豆油市场价格必将进入上涨的节奏,而且9-10月份节日较多,油厂开机率势必会下降,再加上节日包装油的备货。   预计中秋节过后国内豆油价格或将迎来一波上涨态势,上涨幅度在100-150元 吨,建议贸易商近期可在Y1701合约6250-6280之间进行补货。(粮油信息网) 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: