In the futures prices fell coking coal formation interval value-musiland

In the futures prices fell: coking coal formed the value range of clients view the latest market investment strategy: Strategy Logic: by 1, the supply side reform of coal yield significantly. 2, the downstream steel coking plant started to remain high, strong willingness to fill the library coke. 3, the national advanced production capacity of 276 days to 330 days to release news was wrong, but the price of coal fell sharply to form value interval. 4, the second half of the country’s infrastructure is still greater efforts to support the black industry chain. Risk warning: 1, the downstream steel demand to enter the off-season immediately makes black industry chain price weakness. 2, the national supply side reform policy to relax. A,       strategy logic: 1,       decrease the supply side reform of coal production significantly: Economic Operation Bureau of the NDRC to adjust the deputy director Lu Junling said the morning of September 8th by the end of August 2016, the national coal production capacity to finish this year 60%, total production capacity of 1.5 tons of exit. Coal production fell by nearly 10% in the first eight months. If required by the state to complete the supply side reform targets by November this year, 9, 10, 11, there are still 1 tons of production capacity to withdraw from the three month, coal supply is still in the reduction phase. 2,       coking plant high operation rate have great support for the demand for coking coal: Figure 1, steel blast furnace operating rate and profit ratio of steel mill blast furnace operating rate remained at around 80%, the profit rate is above 80%, provide support for coal demand and prices. Figure 2, coking plant operating rate of coking plant operating rate rose significantly recently, small coking plant operating rate rose from 67% to 71.3% and the lowest in July, coking plant operating rate rose from 69% to 80.9% the lowest in July, a large coking plant operating rate rose by 80% to the lowest in July 83.4%, coking enterprises nearly two months the price has exceeded 400 million tons, good profit, strong demand for coking coal. 3,       advanced production policy does not involve the coking coal advanced capacity meeting was only signed in September 8th to participate in coal production dynamic adjustment of production liability form, mainly for coal enterprises, has no effect on the two day of coking coal, coking coal fell provides long value interval. 4,       national infrastructure construction is still large: in September 5th the State Council meeting pointed out, to seize the current raw material prices for commodities such as low favorable opportunity, increase efforts to implement the proactive fiscal policy, focusing on poverty alleviation, post disaster reconstruction and small water conservancy reinforcement, and major infrastructure construction, new industries, new the kinetic energy of cultivation and other key areas, focus on institutional reform and innovation, optimize the policy "formula" to lay a portfolio. Visible infrastructure in the second half of the country is still strong demand for black industry chain support. Two,       operation strategy and.相关的主题文章: