Zhejiang Futures supply pressure increased, Zheng cotton weak concussion-ffrrr.com

Zhejiang Futures: supply pressure Zheng cotton weak shocks clients view the latest market Abstract: 1, the new annual cotton yield reduction, factory sales, 2 cotton textile enterprises eager to have before the holiday, delayed start time, suspend the enterprise pressure 3, market for throwing storage guess the unity of 4, years after the cotton market still weak, recommended every rebound short operation, a market review Figure 1: Cotton contract 1605 K line chart (unit: million tons) of cotton in January to a narrow range of market, gradually reduce the volume. Mainly because the market for the country cast storage speculation gradually unified, caused no small pressure on Zheng cotton; downstream textile enterprises after years ago the replenishment behavior to support the stock market, futures in depth discount, Zheng Mianlve a rebound in demand, but there is no volume with the fundamentals, no major changes the market outlook is still weak. Two, the yield down again, eager to sell cotton processing plant 1, cotton production is forecast to decline again Figure 2: Chinese cotton production and marketing resources table data source: China cotton information network this month on the 1516 annual yield adjusted to 4 million 750 thousand tons, down 260 thousand. The import volume has also been cut down from 150 thousand tons to 1 million 100 thousand tons, which is the lowest value in the past 9 years. Mainly because the quota is still 894 thousand tons this year, while in the textile industry downturn, internal and external spreads narrowed, cotton yarn instead of imported cotton and so on, the estimated import volume will be a downward trend. Although consumption has also declined (down 70 thousand tons), but less than the magnitude of production and imports, the overall positive, but the impact on the market is limited. Figure 3: the annual cotton imports source: Zhejiang Futures Research Center, Chinese cotton information network 2, farmers sell was urgent, factory began to holiday this year cotton shows a "late, fast processing, listing sold urgently" features. By the end of December, cotton processing work is nearing completion, is expected by the end of January all over. Especially near the end of the year, farmers sell the heart is very urgent, want to get rid of as soon as possible, many farmers take the initiative to pull to the cotton processing plant, with extremely low price for sale. Processing factories, in order to catch up with the downstream textile enterprises to replenish the stock market, the processing plant to speed up the processing speed. The focus of the processing plant is on sale, but because of the textile market downturn, textile enterprises favor high quality cotton, processing plants are eager to return funds and other reasons, the spot market prices decline. After the end of the replenishment, in mid January, the processing plant has been holiday, the market turnover declined. Three, textile enterprises, ahead of the holiday started slow, due to the market downturn, 1 textile enterprises will leave the investigation, textile enterprises PMI decline in Figure 4: enterprise holiday time data source: Chinese cotton information network figure 5: the number of days for the enterprise data sources: Chinese cotton information network survey results show that respondents had a holiday plan. The 52.44% companies said they will start off in February, followed by the end of January and mid January, basically before the Spring Festival holiday. Holiday days.

浙商期货:供应压力增大 郑棉偏弱震荡 客户端 查看最新行情   内容摘要:   1、 新年度棉花产量下调,加工厂急于销售新棉   2、 纺企节前均放假,延迟开工时间,暂缓企业压力   3、 市场对抛储的猜想趋于统一   4、 年后棉花市场仍然偏弱,建议逢反弹短空操作   一、 行情回顾   图1:棉花1605合约日K线图(单位:元 吨)   1月棉花为窄幅震荡行情,成交量逐渐减少。主要因为市场对于国家抛储的猜测逐渐统一化,对郑棉造成不小的压力;后因下游纺企年前补库行为,对现货市场有所支撑,在期货深度贴水的情况下,郑棉略有反弹需求,但没有成交量配合,基本面没有大的变化,后市依旧看弱。   二、 产量再度下调,加工厂急于销售新棉   1、 新棉产量预估再度下降   图2:中国棉花产销存量资源表   数据来源:中国棉花信息网   本月对15 16年度产量有所调整,下调26万吨至475万吨。对进口量也进行了下调,下调了15万吨至110万吨,为近9年来的最低值。主要因为今年配额量仍为89.4万吨,而在纺织业低迷、内外价差缩小、棉纱替代进口棉等情况下,预估进口量会成下降趋势。虽然消费也有所下降(下调7万吨),但不及产量和进口量的幅度,整体偏利好,但对市场影响有限。   图3:各年度棉花进口量   数据来源:浙商期货研究中心、中国棉花信息网   2、 棉农交售心里迫切,加工厂开始逐渐放假   本年度棉花总体呈现一个“上市迟、交售快、加工急”的特点。截止12月底,棉花加工工作已经接近尾声,预计1月底全部结束。特别是接近年底,棉农交售心里十分迫切,想尽快脱手,多地棉农主动将棉花拉至加工厂,以极低价格要求出售。   加工厂方面,为了赶上下游纺企补充库存这波行情,加工厂加快加工速度。加工厂重心在销售上,但由于纺织市场低迷,纺企青睐高质量棉,加工厂又急于回笼资金等原因,现货市场价格下滑。到补货结束之后,1月中旬开始,加工厂陆续放假,市场成交量下降。   三、纺企提前放假、延缓开工,因市场不景气   1、 纺企放假意愿调查情况,纺企PMI下滑   图4:企业放假时间   数据来源:中国棉花信息网   图5:企业放假天数   数据来源:中国棉花信息网   调查结果显示,被调查企业均有放假计划,其中52.44%的企业表示将在2月份开始放假,随后是1月底和1月中旬,基本都在春节前放假。而放假天数最多集中在7-15天,占32.93%。而15天以上 企业不在少数。纺织宏观环境不景气,自8月来开机率持续下滑。受原料、人工、资金等因素影响,很多纺企只是勉强开工,而提前放假、延迟开工可暂缓企业压力。   图6:棉纺织行业PMI   数据来源:浙商期货研究中心   上半年,纺企PMI数据较往年稍好,在50上下波动,但进入下半年,随着宏观经济下滑,纺企PMI下滑至40左右。总体看,纺企PMI长期低于枯荣线,新订单和开机率长期处于低位,纱线库存偏高,销售不畅。整体消费量预计同比下降。   2、 进口纱逐年增长,抢占国内市场   近年来,进口棉数量虽然下滑,但仍然受到纺企欢迎。而进口棉纱则更是受到追捧,截止2015年12月,进口棉纱257万吨,为历史最高。   图7:历年棉纱进口量   数据来源:浙商期货研究中心   主要是由于棉花受到进口配额和进口利润限制,导致下游的用纱企业不少选择直接进口棉纱来加工生产,尤其是中低端棉纱市场。由下而上的传导,国内棉花市场份额被抢占,需求下降。棉纱进口主要来自印度、巴基斯坦等国,目前进口利润在300-1000元 吨。未来若国际棉价反弹令内外棉纱的价差缩窄,消费量才有可能有进一步上调的空间。   图8:内外棉纱(C32S)价差   数据来源:浙商期货研究中心   四、 市场对抛储猜测趋于统一   目前市场对国家抛储的彩页猜测已经基本趋同。在时间上,认为四月初最为合理,留出三月给国内新棉有加紧销售的机会,又能赶在北半球新棉上市前进行抛储。在价格上,多数人认为内外指数结合或较为可行,即与国际接轨,又不过分打压国内市场。那么内外指数的权重将是下个重点。目前较为权威的国内棉花价格指数有CCindex和CNCotton ,国外则由Cotlook A。若在国内外指数权益相同的情况下,以1月28日指数价格,测算的抛储价格为{(12358+12447) 2+11290} 2,为11845元 吨。   五、 结论   由于市场猜测国家将在4月初进行抛储,年后加工厂需抓紧时间进行销售。但因为下游纺织环境不景气,并在年前刚完成备货,后续补库需求下降,并且不少纺企开工较晚,都将增加加工厂的棉花销售难度。在供应压力增大而需求持续不振的情况下,年后棉花行情将持续弱势震荡。建议可缝反弹,短线做空操作。   浙商期货 李若兰 新浪声明:新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。相关的主题文章: